Monday, September 27, 2010

Mortgage Market In Review - September 27, 2010

Lori Wilson, Mortgage Loan Originator for 1st Mariner Mortgage send me this great report.

Mortgage Market In Review - September 27, 2010 

MARKET COMMENT
Mortgage bond prices ended near unchanged last week keeping mortgage interest rates historically low. The Fed meeting Tuesday went as expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and noted they will keep rates low for an extended period of time. Mortgage rates were positive through the middle portion of the week. Unfortunately stronger than expected data and surging stock prices the latter portion of the week eroded the earlier positive movements. Despite those negative movements rates finished near unchanged overall for the week.
The Treasury auctions will be important this week. If foreign demand for US debt remains strong mortgage interest rates may remain lower. Consumer confidence will set the tone for trading the beginning of the week.
LOOKING AHEAD
Economic
Indicator
Release
Date and Time
Consensus
Estimate
Analysis
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Monday,
Sept. 27,
1:15 pm, et
None
Important. $36 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Consumer Confidence
Tuesday,
Sept. 28,
10:00 am, et
53.9
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday,
Sept. 28,
1:15 pm, et
None
Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday,
Sept. 29,
1:15 pm, et
None
Important. $29 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q2 GDP 3rd revision
Thursday,
Sept 30,
8:30 am, et
Up 1.7%
Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays
Friday,
Oct. 1,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.2%,
Up 0.3%
Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation
Friday,
Oct. 1,
8:30 am, et
Up 0.1%
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday,
Oct. 1,
10:00 am, et
67
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ISM Index
Friday,
Oct. 1,
10:00 am, et
55.0
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.
MARKET CONDITIONS
There is a Chinese proverb that states, “May you live in interesting times.” It is often argued that the word interesting is meant to be a synonym for turbulent or dangerous. This phrase hits the bull's-eye given the current state of the financial markets. While stocks and bonds are swinging around wildly there is some good news. Interest rates for conforming and FHA/VA loans are historically low.
Remember, low rates are not a given considering the uncertainty in the financial markets. Inflation, real or perceived, erodes the value of bonds causing bond prices to fall and rates to rise. The last thing the economy needs now is higher mortgage interest rates. If inflation emerges that very well may happen despite the continued Fed efforts to keep rates low. With so much uncertainty, a cautious approach to float lock decisions, especially heading into the inflation data this week, would be wise.


Lori Wilson
Mortgage Loan Originator

1st Mariner Mortgage

2661 Riva Road Bldg. 1000
Annapolis, MD 21401

Office: (301) 261-8706
Fax: (301) 576-4538
Cell: (301) 922-5116



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